粮油食品科技
全球经济政策不确定性对中国粮食价格波动影响的实证分析(网络首发、推荐阅读)
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An empirical analysis of the impact of global economic policy uncertainty on China's grain price volatility(Online First, Recommended Article)
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    摘要:

    不断调整的国内外经济政策,不仅对我国利用国际市场资源带来挑战,还可能通过价格传导的形式影响国内粮食价格,甚至粮食生产。在广泛搜集影响粮食价格波动相关因素的基础上,采用主成分分析和时变参数因子增强向量自回归模型(TVP-FAVAR)相结合的方法,分析了供求因素、金融及能源因素以及全球经济政策不稳定性对我国粮食价格的影响。主要研究发现如下:全球经济政策不确定性对国内粮食价格有显著的负向冲击;不同种类粮食价格对不确定性冲击的响应是有差异的。针对模型结果,提出如下政策建议:在中美贸易战愈演愈烈的今天,面对来自国际市场的不确定性冲击,政策制定者应该采取组合策略平抑国际市场的冲击;政策制定者应针对不同粮食品种实施有差别的价格政策和调节手段;加强粮食市场信息监测系统建设,提高根据价格监测信息准确解读市场行情的能力,制定多样化价格调整政策来抵消外部市场的不确定性冲击;我国可以通过与更多具有粮食出口潜力的国家实施更多的贸易自由协定,为国民寻求更加稳定的外部供给渠道,减缓主要国家贸易政策不稳定性带来的不利影响。

    Abstract:

    The constant adjustment of domestic and foreign economic policies not only challenges utilization of international market resources, but also may affect domestic food prices and even food production through the form of price transmission. Based on the extensive collection of relevant factors affecting the fluctuation of food prices, the method of combining principal component analysis and TVP-FAVAR model was used in this study to analyze the influence of supply and demand factors, financial and energy factors and the instability of global economic policy on grain price in China. The main findings are as follows: 1) uncertainty of global economic policy has a significant negative impact on domestic food prices. 2) the response of different types of grain prices to the impact of uncertainty is different. Based on the results of the model, this study proposes the following policy recommendations: 1) In the context of the increasingly fierce trade war between China and the United States, policy makers should adopt a combination of strategies to mitigate the impact of the international market in the face of the uncertainties in the international market. 2) Policy makers should implement differentiated price policies and adjustment means based on different grain varieties. 3) Strengthen the construction of grain market information monitoring system, improve the ability to accurately interpret market conditions based on price monitoring information, and formulate diversified price adjustment policies to offset the impact of uncertainties in the external market. 4) China can implement more free trade agreements with more countries which have grain export potential to seek more stable external supply channels for the domestic people and mitigate the adverse effects of unstable trade policies of major countries.

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杨国蕾,郑沫利,刘 洁.全球经济政策不确定性对中国粮食价格波动影响的实证分析(网络首发、推荐阅读)[J].粮油食品科技,2020,28(4):1-10.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-07-14
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